「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad近日做客阿拉伯卫星电视台(Al Arabiya)，围绕全球多类资产的市场波动展开讨论。在地缘政治不确定性持续脆弱的背景下，油价重回每桶100美元上方;与此同时，通胀预期升温、央行进一步加息的可能性上升，令金价向每盎司4000美元回落。

👇以下是文字预览👇

ARABIYA: Well let's find out more about all of that and cross to GTCFX chief analyst Jameel Ahmad. Jameel, thanks for joining us. Um, quite a bit of volatility around the place in global markets as we enter the final quarter of the year. What are the notable trends that you're seeing?

阿拉伯卫星电视台：接下来我们连线「GTC泽汇」首席分析师 Jameel Ahmad，进一步了解情况。Jameel，感谢接受采访。进入今年最后一个季度，全球市场波动不小，你目前看到哪些值得关注的趋势?

GTCFX: There certainly is a lot of action. I think it just combines with what we've seen throughout 2026 so far. And it doesn't seem to be that things will slow down as we start to enter the Christmas season in just over a month from now. But generally, what we're seeing on global markets, higher oil prices. Unfortunately, it appears that geopolitical tensions and uncertainty will continue and persist. Maybe potentially we're going to have some sort of escalation somewhere. So investors still pricing a higher oil premium. As a result of this, we are seeing a little bit of concerns that global markets in terms of what's happening on Wall Street and other major stock indices across the world, that they might encounter a little bit of maybe profit taking over the coming weeks because they've been driven so much stronger and higher in sentiment by AI. But at the same time, what we are likely to see is more investors preparing for not just a jump into higher oil prices for longer, but essentially stronger inflation expectations as a consequence of the higher oil prices and then as a consequence of this, for a more upbeat and what we call in financial market language hawkish, which basically means central banks suggesting that interest rates will continue to go higher. And that's something that in the past has been a little bit of a sensitivity when it comes to Wall Street and global financial market stock indices and so forth, which generally enjoy news of lower interest rates. But as long as oil prices remain at these higher levels, they're unlikely to get lower interest rate policy anytime soon. I do wonder whether we might see some profit taking on major stock market indices between now and at some point over the final quarter of the year.

GTC泽汇：市场确实很热闹，和2026 年以来的节奏差不多。距离圣诞季只有一个多月，看起来也不会很快降温。总体看，全球市场最明显的趋势就是油价偏高。遗憾的是，地缘政治紧张和不确定性还会延续，某些地方甚至可能进一步升级，所以投资者仍在为油价计入更高的风险溢价。由此，市场也有些担心，华尔街和全球其他主要股指未来几周可能出现获利了结，因为人工智能把市场情绪推得太强，涨幅也太大了。同时，更多投资者可能在准备的不只是接受油价更高更久，还包括油价推高通胀预期，以及由此带来的更偏鹰派预期。也就是说，央行可能暗示利率还会继续往上走。

过去华尔街和全球股指对这类信号比较敏感，因为它们通常喜欢降息消息。但只要油价维持高位，短期内很难等到货币政策转向宽松。我确实在想，从现在到四季度某个时点，主要股指是否会出现一轮获利了结。

ARABIYA: Right, because we're talking about Brent crude at five-month highs in recent days, very comfortably above the $110 a barrel mark. And I'm just wondering how investors are adapting to what looks like being a new normal.

阿拉伯卫星电视台：对，布伦特原油近日升至五个月高点，稳稳高于每桶110 美元。我想知道，投资者怎么适应这种看起来正在变成常态的局面?

GTCFX: Yeah, it seems to be higher oil prices for longer. That's what the normal metaphor is now that we're going to expect oil to remain higher for longer. And as a result of this, you're going to expect inflation pressures to come back into the market. And they are in certain major economies. But essentially investors are a little bit concerned that geopolitics remains fragile, remains sensitive. And that unfortunately we are at risk of escalations. So what investors are preferring to do is price in more risk premium into the oil markets and keep that premium at those levels rather than what they would previously do, and let's say two months ago. They were taking profit on oil, which obviously moved all the way from 65 US dollars at the beginning of this regional crisis to go well above 100 US dollars. And they seem to be playing that roller coaster and keeping it at a higher level that we are expecting oil prices to remain higher up until we have a resolution or some real signs of progress when it comes to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. It just seems to be that we are going to expect oil prices to remain somewhere around 100 US dollars. And that might even continue until as long as it takes to get some sort of solution, fingers crossed.

GTC泽汇：是的，看起来就是油价更高更久。现在大家常用的说法就是，要预期油价在更长时间里维持高位。这样一来，通胀压力可能重回市场，一些主要经济体已经出现了这种情况。但投资者主要担心的是，地缘政治依然脆弱、敏感，不幸的是仍有升级风险。所以投资者更愿意在油市里计入更多风险溢价，并把溢价维持在当前水平，而不是像大约两个月前那样在油价上涨后获利了结。那轮油价从地区危机爆发时的每桶65 美元一路涨到远高于 100 美元。投资者似乎在适应这种过山车，并把价格维持在高位。我们预计，在中东局势出现解决方案或真正进展迹象之前，油价会继续偏高。看起来就是要预期油价维持在每桶 100 美元左右。这种情况可能持续到找到某种解决方案为止，但愿如此。

ARABIYA: Yeah, I mean that means higher prices at the pumps for consumers. Obviously a major theme for voters in the midterms in the United States. I mean, is all of this fueling fears of growing, rising inflation in major economies?

阿拉伯卫星电视台：这显然意味着消费者在加油站要付更高的油费，这也是美国中期选举中选民很关注的议题。当前局势是否在加剧主要经济体对通胀上升的担忧?

GTCFX: It is, not to the same extent as what we saw three years or so ago when the crisis in Eastern Europe, of course, and talking Russia and Ukraine when that broke out. We saw what we could say there was generational inflation levels which were rising above the annual level of double digits in major economies. At the moment we're not seeing inflation grow at that level, but it seems to be persistent at levels that are somewhat uncomfortable for central banks. To give you an example, this week we had UK inflation data. We saw annualized jump 3.1% previous reading, although we are to 3.5%, mostly based on higher oil prices and energy prices. In the United States last week, financial markets were somewhat spooked because we had a very hot US annualized inflation reading that put in all this type of anxiety that the central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve, will have to be a lot more aggressive when it comes to raising interest rates this year. And even in the early hours of this morning, you saw Japan’s annual inflation came in above 2% for the first time this year. So we are seeing across major economies that inflation readings are getting higher. I wouldn't say uncomfortably high, but high enough that central banks are going to start alerting everyday people on the street that even if they have raised interest rates once since this unfortunate regional crisis broke out, it's more likely than not that you're going to get two or three interest rate increases between now and the end of the year, specifically when it comes to the US Federal Reserve, if not early 2027. And the market following that UK inflation reading this week went from not expecting the Bank of England to move to expecting them to potentially move twice between now and the end of the year. And of course, we're having this interview at the later stages in October.

GTC泽汇：确实如此，但程度不如大约三年前东欧危机爆发时，也就是俄乌冲突开始后。当时主要经济体出现了可以说一代人少见的高通胀，年通胀率超过两位数。目前通胀没到那个水平，但仍持续在让央行有些不安的位置。举个例子，本周英国公布通胀数据，年化通胀率从上次的3.1% 升到 3.5%，主要受油价和能源价格上涨推动。上周美国公布了一份很热的年化通胀数据，金融市场有些受惊，担心美联储今年加息会更激进。甚至今天凌晨，日本年通胀率今年首次超过 2%。所以主要经济体的通胀数据都在走高。我不会说已经高得令人不安，但足以让央行开始提醒普通民众，即使这场不幸的地区危机爆发以来已经加过一次息，年底前很可能还会再加两到三次。尤其是美联储，甚至可能延续到 2027 年初。本周英国通胀数据公布后，市场从预期英国央行按兵不动，转为预期年底前可能加息两次。当然，我们这次采访是在十月下旬。

ARABIYA: All right, and just lastly, I mean one thing I'm struggling to understand at the moment is why gold prices sort of been hitting sort of two-month lows. I mean, gold is far below its peak of around $5,400 a few months ago. I mean, with geopolitical uncertainty, you thought it would be doing the exact opposite. What's going on?

阿拉伯卫星电视台：最后还有一个问题。有一点我一直不太明白，为什么金价跌到了两个月低点。几个月前金价峰值大约在每盎司5400 美元，现在远低于那个水平。按说地缘政治不确定性上升，黄金应该有相反表现。这是怎么回事?

GTCFX: Well, to be fair, it's not just you who's asking that question. I think more traders are asking those types of questions right now, specifically gold enthusiasts. So essentially gold, yes, it's seen traditionally as a safe haven. And earlier this year it went all-time highs somewhere above 5,400 US dollars. But when this regional crisis broke out, and we're talking about the end of February, we have seen gold steadily deteriorate in value. And early this morning and early last night in the US trading session, it did go below 4,000 US dollars, which means that's a drop of close to 25% from its peak. Not quite there, but it's seriously steep enough for investors to be a little bit concerned about what's happening to the precious metal. Essentially, gold had benefited from lower interest rate environment with inflation expectations going higher and higher based on oil prices going higher too. We are seeing investors take profit on gold. And I would watch that correlation as well very closely. Higher oil prices go, we do see investors taking more profit on gold. And essentially when investors have done during this geopolitical crisis and the uncertainty is they favor the US dollar as a safe haven currency. And as the world's reserve currency as well. So investors’ve essentially diversified their portfolio away from gold and put more holdings in the US dollar. But essentially the last, let's say nine or ten months for gold, they haven't been what you might expect if you're going by the economic textbooks that if there's uncertainty in the world, geopolitical uncertainty, then you should see more appeal towards precious metals. Happens to be in this case, investors just happen to prefer the US currency. But there is an interest rate environment around this. There is a stronger inflation outlook around this. It's not just because of the geopolitics, but it is a result of geopolitics. Investors have just preferred a different asset.

GTC泽汇：说实话，问这个的不止你，现在更多交易员在问这类问题，尤其是黄金爱好者。黄金传统上被视为避险资产，今年早些时候它创下每盎司5400 美元以上的历史高点。但 2 月底这场地区危机爆发后，金价持续走弱。今天凌晨和昨晚美国交易时段早些时候，金价一度跌破每盎司 4000 美元，较峰值跌近 25%。还没完全到那个跌幅，但已经足够陡，让投资者对黄金走势有些担心。黄金此前受益于低利率环境，同时油价上涨推高了通胀预期。现在投资者在黄金上获利了结。我会密切关注这种相关性。油价越高，投资者似乎越倾向于在黄金上获利了结。这轮地缘政治危机和不确定性中，投资者更青睐美元作为避险货币，也因为美元是全球储备货币。投资者实际上把组合从黄金分散出去，增持了美元。但过去九到十个月黄金的表现，按经济学教科书的逻辑，可能不是你会预期的。通常全球不确定性上升，尤其是地缘政治不确定性，贵金属应该更受青睐。但这次投资者恰好更偏好美元。背后有利率环境，也有更强的通胀前景。不只是地缘政治，但也是地缘政治带来的结果。投资者只是选择了另一种资产。

ARABIYA: All right, we're going to leave it there. Thank you so much for helping us digest all of that, Jameel Ahmad, GTCFX chief analyst and Global Markets commentator. Thank you very much for your time.

阿拉伯卫星电视台：好的，今天就谈到这里。感谢您帮我们梳理这些市场动态。感谢「GTC泽汇」首席分析师兼全球市场评论员 Jameel Ahmad接受采访。非常感谢您抽出时间。