公司公告油价破百,美联储加息压力重燃|GTC泽汇首席分析师再次做客TRT WORLD
油价飙升重新点燃通胀担忧,全球股市和债市同时承压。「GTC泽汇」首席分析师Jameel Ahmad做客 土耳其世界台 时表示,油价突破100美元将加大美联储加息压力,市场可能低估紧缩风险,油价或在更长时间内维持高位。👇以下是文字预览👇TRT WORLD:For more on this, I'm joined by Jameel Ahmed. He's in the studio with me. He's chief analyst at online trading platform GTCFX. Welcome, Jameel. Now, with surging oil prices reigniting those inflation fears and weighing heavily on global markets, how should investors be navigating the simultaneous pressure on both stocks and bonds?土耳其世界台:更多内容,我们请到Jameel Ahmad,他现在就在演播室,是线交易平台「GTC泽汇」的首席分析师。欢迎你,Jameel。现在油价大涨,通胀担忧又被点燃,全球市场也受到明显拖累。股市和债市同时承压,投资者该怎么应对?GTCFX: I think if you're looking at the stock markets firstly, throughout the past six months, they've been resilient in light of continuous elevation and elevated oil prices. But the test of time now is that oil prices have hit above 100 U.S. dollars for roughly the first time in three months. That's going to put more pressure on the U.S. central bank in inflation expectations, and that also means that we can see more pressure on stock markets based on the likelihood that the Fed, the U.S. central bank, are going to be under more pressure to raise interest rates. And I think the market overall this year has been undercooking the likelihood that the Fed, the U.S. central bank, will need to raise interest rates. And sometimes when you undercook something, investors might be risking an upset stomach. So let's see how they react should those probabilities get closer towards 80% that the Fed might raise interest rates. When it comes to bond markets, I think investors have always enjoyed the news of lower interest rate policy when it comes to bonds. They're not going to get it for as long as the oil price remains closer to 100 U.S. dollars, and I think that also means that we should be looking for some potential risks for the gold price over the coming days and weeks ahead. I think all eyes are on the U.S. inflation report later today, and we can see a lot of market volatility based on how the market reacts to this upcoming data.GTC泽汇:我觉得,先看股市。过去半年,油价一直处在高位,但股市表现还算扛得住。不过现在考验来了,油价大约三个月来第一次冲破100美元。这会让美联储在通胀预期上承受更大压力,也意味着股市可能面临更多压力,因为美联储更可能不得不加息。而且我认为,今年以来市场整体上一直低估了美联储需要加息的可能性。有时候,低估一件事,投资者可能反而会“吃坏肚子”。所以,如果美联储加息概率升到接近80%,我们看看市场会怎么反应。再看债市,投资者一向喜欢低利率政策的消息,因为这对债券是好事。但只要油价还在100美元附近,他们就等不到这种消息。我觉得,这也意味着未来几天到几周,金价可能面临一些风险。现在大家眼睛都盯着今天晚些时候的美国通胀报告,市场怎么解读这组数据,可能会带来不小的波动。TRT WORLD: Right, now President Trump has said the conflict will likely run well into November when the U.S. midterms are expected to take place. Does that mean oil will remain comfortably within the triple digits for the rest of this year?土耳其世界台:好的。特朗普总统说,这场冲突很可能持续到11月,而美国中期选举预计就在那时举行。这是不是意味着,今年剩下的时间,油价会稳稳待在三位数?GTCFX: We can't say that it's going to remain exactly within the triple digits, but it does mean that the pressure's on and the expectation's going to be much higher that oil prices remain higher for longer. Again, if we look where the oil price was just over six months ago, at the beginning of this unfortunate geopolitical conflict, we're ranging somewhere between 65 U.S. dollars and 70 U.S. dollars. Clearly we're significantly above those levels now, and we've been ranging between those levels over the past couple of months. If there's another escalation, then yes, oil prices will likely remain closer to triple digits than not. And it comes down to whether we have an escalation or continued negotiations. And of course nobody's none the wiser as to whether that's going to be the case, and that would then differentiate whether the oil price stays above 100 U.S. dollars or maybe we have softer U.S. oil prices. But overall we are looking at higher oil prices for longer.GTC泽汇:我们不能说油价一定会刚好卡在三位数,但这说明压力已经上来了,市场也更倾向于相信油价会在更长时间里维持高位。再看半年多前,也就是这场不幸的地缘政治冲突刚爆发时,油价大概在65到70美元之间。显然,现在我们已经远高于那个水平,过去几个月也一直在更高区间波动。如果局势再次升级,那么油价大概率会继续贴近三位数,而不是跌下来。关键就看接下来是升级,还是继续谈判。当然,这事谁也说不准,而这会决定油价是维持在100美元以上,还是美国油价能有所回落。但总体来看,我们面对的是油价会在更长时间里保持高位。TRT WORLD: Right, and with U.S. diesel prices now at a new record high and producer inflation climbing, how will the Fed be responding to these inflationary pressures?土耳其世界台:好的。美国柴油价格现在再创新高,生产者价格通胀也在往上走。面对这些通胀压力,美联储会怎么应对?GTCFX: The probability is getting higher by the day that the U.S. central bank will need to raise interest rates. At the moment we're sitting somewhere between 60-40. If we have an inflation report that comes out in a couple of hours that signals that U.S. inflation on an annual basis, and even on a monthly basis, that if you're talking on the annual basis, if we start edging towards 3.5% and potentially closer to 4% rather than 3%, then the expectations are going to be much closer to an 80-20 split on a probability that the Fed will raise interest rates within the coming weeks.GTC泽汇:美联储需要加息的概率,一天比一天高。现在大概是六四开。如果几小时后公布的通胀报告显示,美国通胀不管是按年算还是按月算都在往上走,按年算,如果从3%向3.5%靠,甚至可能接近4%,那么市场对美联储未来几周加息的预期就会接近八二开。TRT WORLD: And how will these interest rates impact consumers?土耳其世界台:那这些加息会怎么影响消费者?GTCFX: It's not just consumers, it's global investors and global markets. But when it comes to consumers, we're looking at higher inflation for longer, which means less potential disposable income. That's particularly important for the U.S. economy because it's so consumer-driven. For example, the consumer spending equates for somewhere between 70 to 75% of the U.S. GDP. But when it comes to inflation expectations, for as long as central banks see higher inflation for longer, they're not going to be cutting interest rates anytime soon. And that's something on a global level, investors have now priced into risk premiums for 2026.GTC泽汇:不只是消费者,全球投资者和全球市场都会受影响。但就消费者来说,通胀会在更长时间里维持高位,这意味着潜在可支配收入会变少。这对美国经济尤其关键,因为美国经济主要靠消费拉动。比如,消费支出占美国GDP的70%到75%。而在通胀预期方面,只要各国央行认为通胀会在更长时间里偏高,它们就不会很快降息。在全球层面,投资者现在已经把这一点计入2026年的风险溢价了。TRT WORLD: Right, we'll have to wait and see what the data shows us. Jameel Ahmad, always great to speak to you. Thank you very much.土耳其世界台:好的,我们只能等数据出来再看。Jameel Ahmad,每次都很有收获。非常感谢。